California May Lose Congressional Seat For The First Time In History As Population Shrinks
California — which has the largest delegation in the US House of Representatives — could lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history due to a dramatic drop in its population count.
The Census Bureau is expected to roll out the Golden State’s latest official population figure, but reports noted that the recent mass exodus from California as residents flee mounting living costs and steep taxes could put the state at risk of losing a congressional seat.
“Over the past decade, the annual population growth rate has slipped to 0.06%, lower than at any time since at least 1900,” Fox News reported.
Should this population decline persist, California — a Democratic stronghold — would lose a seat and have 52 congressional representatives from the current 53 House seats it holds.
'California is bracing for the first time to lose one of its 53 congressional seats. California’s out-of-state exodus is overshadowed by the churning movement of people within its borders, now remaking once-rural communities.'https://t.co/F5ZrueiCcX
— Rob Rand Wants Justice for the Menendez Brothers (@MenendezRand) April 25, 2021
Nonetheless, the Golden State’s representation is still more than any other state, although one less seat would in turn mean the state will “lose electoral votes” in the presidential election, according to the report.
Texas, Florida to gain House seats
States like Texas and Florida, however —who were won in the 2020 election by former President Donald Trump — have seen their populations and political clout grow as it becomes the usual destination for Americans moving out of their former home states.
Companies have also started building their factories in these states, thus pushing the increase in population even more.
Texas is expected to gain as many as three seats, according to an Election Data Services analysis. Florida is also to add two House seats, while Arizona and Colorado could also increase their congressional seats.
Texas currently has 36 seats in the House of Representatives and Florida holds 29 congressional seats. Meanwhile, Arizona has nine seats and Colorado has seven.
“California’s fleeing residents often cite skyrocketing cost of living, high taxes and sprawling wildfires as their motivation to move,” Fox News said.
“But recently, some residents have become fed up with Governor Gavin Newsom’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and persistent school closures. Newsom is facing an all-but-certain recall race, likely in the fall,” it added.
Red states to add more seats
The Golden State is the only state on the west coast expected to lose a congressional seat in the House of Representatives after the 2020 Census, Mercury News said, citing an analysis of new population data.
“What you’re seeing is a continuation of the trend that’s been happening from the 1930’s: people leaving the Northeast and Upper Midwest and going south and west,” said Kimball Brace, the president of Election Data Services. “But California is the exception.”
It said nine other states will lose a seat, but mostly in the Northeast and Midwest, according to Election Data Services’ projection — a political consulting firm that analyzes new data from the Census Bureau.
The report added: “In terms of presidential politics, red states will gain more votes in the electoral college than blue states — although the changes wouldn’t have swung the results of any recent presidential race, the firm found.”
Observers noted that with only six seats needed to take back control of the House majority, the additional congressional seats expected from several states won by Republicans could cement GOP control of the House in 2022.
"Republicans could win control of the House in 2022 based on redistricting alone. 3 of the states where the GOP has complete control of the map-making — Texas, Florida & North Carolina — are expected to gain a total of six seats. A GOP sweep of those seats would flip the House." https://t.co/bSRjpYFjlk
— Eric Geller (@ericgeller) February 16, 2021
"Some experts note Republicans could win control of the House in 2022 based on redistricting alone. Three of the states where the GOP has complete control of the map-making — Texas, Florida and North Carolina — are expected to gain a total of six seats." https://t.co/n0xNxgct52
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) February 16, 2021
Republicans hold total control of redistricting in 18 states, including Florida, North Carolina & Texas, all likely to gain seats in the 2020 census from population growth. The GOP could retake the House in 2022 solely on gains from newly drawn districts. https://t.co/RpZmEtuqFc
— Jake Bernstein (@Jake_Bernstein) February 1, 2021
The Democratic Party, although still maintaining control of the House chamber, currently have just six more seats than the Republican Party. They hold 218 House seats compared to the 212 held by the GOP.